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ekonomija

Ir-rendiment tal-bonds ta '#Eurozone jitla' fuq it-tamiet għal ftehim #Brexit

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Eurozone bond yields rose on Monday (21 October) as investors sold safer assets on the receding risk of a British no-deal exit from the European Union and in the belief that the UK parliament could soon approve a Brexit agreement, jiktbu Tommy Wilkes and Yoruk Bahceli.

Optimism over Brexit negotiations after the EU and Britain agreed a new deal last week has fueled a selloff across euro zone bond markets, as some sort of resolution to Brexit would help tame a key uncertainty facing both the euro zone and British economies.

Analysts said Brexit would remain the dominant driver for eurozone bond markets until economic data released later in the week, including flash purchasing managers’ index surveys.

The deferral of a vote on the withdrawal agreement in the UK parliament on Saturday has reinforced optimism, as lawmakers forced the government to seek a delay to the Oct. 31 deadline for Britain’s leaving the EU.

The British government will now need to push on with legislation needed for ratification of the Brexit deal, after the parliamentary speaker halted the government’s attempt to hold a vote on the deal on Monday.

Natixis rates strategist Cyril Regnat said media reports suggesting Johnson could get his deal passed were encouraging investors to buy riskier assets and hurting euro zone bonds.

However, he said the market should be more nervous, because the threat of a no-deal Brexit remained as long as Brussels did not signal it would delay the Brexit departure date.

“As long as the EU is not ready to send a clear sign of its willingness to extend, I don’t see why we should have optimism around risky assets,” he said.

Benchmark 10-year German government bond yields extended their rise on Monday, gaining as much as four basis points to -0.34% DE10YT=RR, close to three-month highs.

(Graphic: German 10-year bond yield, hawn)

Reuters Graphic

Given the scale of the bond market sell-off since the first signs of a Brexit deal emerged - with Germany’s 10-year bond yield rising 21 bps since 10 October - analysts expect any further rise in yields if a Brexit deal is approved to be limited.

Commerzbank rates strategist Rainer Guntermann said he saw yields rising up to 5 bps as an immediate reaction if a deal is approved, as “most of the Brexit excitement is in the price now”.

The outlook was also supported by White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow expressing optimism about ongoing U.S.-China trade talks and saying tariffs scheduled for December could be withdrawn if negotiations continue to go well.

The Brexit optimism and hopes that a downturn in the euro zone economy is bottoming out has also lifted inflation expectations.

A key market gauge of long-term euro zone inflation expectations briefly rose to a one-month high of 1.249% EUIL5YF5Y=R.

“The (economic) data are expected to show very mild improvement, confirming that a bottom-building period is on its way,” UniCredit strategists said.

They added that an improvement in line with expectations was already priced into bond markets.

Italian bonds underperformed on Monday, with the 10-year yield up six basis points IT10YT=RR.

The European Commission sent a letter to Italian authorities asking for clarification over its 2020 draft budget and Rome will reply by Wednesday.

Investors are also preparing for European Central Bank President Mario Draghi’s final policy meeting on Thursday, although no significant policy shifts are expected following the announcement of a stimulus package at the last meeting.

EU

Il-MPE jaħsbuha lid-direttur tal-Frontex dwar ir-rwol tal-aġenzija fl-irtirar ta 'dawk li jfittxu l-ażil

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Il-Parlament Ewropew se jaħdem lid-direttur tal-Frontex, Fabrice Leggeri, fuq allegazzjonijiet tal-involviment tal-persunal tal-aġenzija fi pushbacks illegali ta ’persuni li jfittxu ażil mill-gwardja tal-fruntiera Griega se jkunu l-fokus ta’ dibattitu fil-Kumitat għal-Libertajiet Ċivili tal-Parlament Ewropew nhar it-Tlieta.

Il-MPE huma mistennija jitolbu tweġibiet mid-Direttur Eżekuttiv tal-Aġenzija Ewropea għall-Gwardja tal-Fruntiera u tal-Kosta rigward l-inċidenti li fihom il-gwardji tal-kosta Griegi huma allegatament li waqqfu lill-migranti jippruvaw jaslu max-xtut tal-UE u bagħtuhom lura fl-ilmijiet Torok. X’aktarx li jistaqsu dwar ir-riżultat tal-inkjesta interna mwettqa mill-aġenzija tal-fruntieri tal-UE u l-laqgħa tal-bord imsejħa fuq talba tal-Kummissjoni Ewropea.

F'Ottubru li għadda, qabel ir-rivelazzjonijiet tal-midja, il-forum konsultattiv tal-Frontex - li jiġbor, fost oħrajn, rappreżentanti tal-Uffiċċju Ewropew ta 'Appoġġ fil-Qasam tal-Asil (EASO), l-Aġenzija tal-UE għad-Drittijiet Fundamentali (FRA), l-UNHCR, il-Kunsill tal-Ewropa u l-IOM tħassib fir-rapport annwali tagħha. Il-forum indika n-nuqqas ta 'sistema effettiva ta' monitoraġġ ta 'ksur potenzjali tad-drittijiet fundamentali fl-attivitajiet tal-Aġenzija.

Fis-6 ta ’Lulju, f’laqgħa oħra tal-Kumitat għal-Libertajiet Ċivili, Fabrice Leggeri assigura lill-MPE li l-persunal tal-Frontex ma kien involut fl-ebda pushbacks u ddeskriva inċident bl-ekwipaġġ Daniż abbord wieħed mill-bastimenti tal-aġenzija bħala“ nuqqas ta ’ftehim”.

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ekonomija

Soros jitlob li l-UE toħroġ 'bonds perpetwi' permezz ta 'kooperazzjoni msaħħa

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F'opinjoni ta 'opinjoni fi Sindakat tal-Proġett, George Soros spjega l-idea tiegħu ta 'kif l-impass attwali mal-Polonja u l-Ungerija fuq il-kundizzjonalità tal-istat tad-dritt jista' jiġi megħlub. 

Soros jattribwixxi l-veto tal-Ungerija għall-baġit tal-UE u l-fond ta ’rkupru COVID-19 għat-tħassib tal-Prim Ministru Viktor Orbán li l-kundizzjonalità l-ġdida tal-istat tad-dritt tal-UE marbuta mal-baġit“ timponi limiti prattiċi fuq il-korruzzjoni personali u politika tiegħu [...] Huwa [ Orbán] tant huwa inkwetat li kkonkluda ftehim ta 'kooperazzjoni vinkolanti mal-Polonja, u ġib miegħu lil dak il-pajjiż' l isfel ”.

Soros jgħid li tista 'tintuża l-proċedura ta' "kooperazzjoni msaħħa" introdotta fit-Trattat ta 'Lisbona biex "tipprovdi bażi legali għal aktar integrazzjoni taż-żona tal-euro". 

Kooperazzjoni msaħħa tippermetti grupp ta 'mill-inqas disa' nazzjonijiet li jimplimentaw miżuri jekk l-istati membri kollha jonqsu milli jilħqu ftehim, pajjiżi oħra jistgħu jissieħbu aktar tard jekk iridu. Il-proċedura hija mfassla biex tegħleb il-paraliżi. Soros targumenta li "sottogrupp ta 'stati membri" jista' jistabbilixxi baġit u jaqbel dwar mod kif jiffinanzjah - bħal permezz ta '"bond konġunt".

Soros qabel argumenta li l-UE għandha toħroġ bonds perpetwi, iżda issa tqis dan bħala impossibbli, "minħabba nuqqas ta 'fidi fost l-investituri li l-UE se tibqa' ħajja." Huwa jgħid li dawn il-bonds ikunu "aċċettati faċilment minn investituri fit-tul bħal kumpaniji tal-assigurazzjoni tal-ħajja". 

Soros ipoġġi wkoll ftit mill-ħtija fil-bieb tal-hekk imsejħa Frugal Five (l-Awstrija, id-Danimarka, il-Ġermanja, l-Olanda u l-Iżvezja) li huma "aktar interessati li jiffrankaw il-flus milli jikkontribwixxu għall-ġid komuni". 

L-Italja, skond Soros, teħtieġ il-benefiċċji minn bonds perpetwi aktar minn pajjiżi oħra, iżda "mhijiex ixxurtjata biżżejjed" biex tkun tista 'toħroġhom f'isimha stess. Ikun "ġest mill-isbaħ ta 'solidarjetà", u jżid li l-Italja hija wkoll it-tielet l-akbar ekonomija ta' l-UE: "Fejn tkun l-UE mingħajr l-Italja?" 

Il-provvediment tal-kura tas-saħħa u l-qawmien mill-ġdid tal-ekonomija, jgħid Soros, se jirrikjedu ħafna iktar minn € 1.8 triljun ($ 2.2 triljun) allokati fil-baġit u l-fond ta ’rkupru tal-UE tal-Ġenerazzjoni li Jmiss il-ġdida.

George Soros huwa Chairman ta 'Soros Fund Management u l-Open Society Foundations. Pijunier tal-industrija tal-hedge-funds, huwa l-awtur ta ’The Alchemy of Finance, The New Paradigm for Financial Markets: The Credit Crisis of 2008 and What it Means, u, l-aktar reċenti, In Defence of Open Society.

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EU

Il-ftehim UE / SU se jafferma mill-ġdid il-kooperazzjoni ta 'soċjetajiet miftuħa

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Illum (30 ta 'Novembru) l-ambaxxaturi se jinġabru fi Brussell biex iħejju għall-Kunsill ta' l-Affarijiet Barranin u l-Kunsill Ewropew tal-kapijiet tal-gvern tal-ġimgħa d-dieħla. Il-quċċata tal-lista se tkun il-futur tar-relazzjonijiet bejn l-UE u l-Istati Uniti.

Id-diskussjonijiet se jiffokaw fuq ħames pedamenti: Il-Ġlieda kontra l-COVID-19; it-titjib tal-irkupru ekonomiku; il-ġlieda kontra t-tibdil fil-klima; il-ħarsien tal-multilateraliżmu; u, tippromwovi l-paċi u s-sigurtà. 

Dokument ta ’strateġija jpoġġi l-enfasi fuq il-kooperazzjoni ta’ soċjetajiet demokratiċi miftuħa u ekonomiji tas-suq, bħala mod kif tiġi indirizzata l-isfida strateġika ppreżentata mill-assertività internazzjonali dejjem tikber taċ-Ċina.

Il-president tal-Kunsill Ewropew Charles Michel se jkun qed jikkonsulta mal-mexxejja matul il-ġimgħa d-dieħla u se jikkoordina wkoll man-NATO biex jippjana summit fl-ewwel nofs tal-2021.

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